United States President Donald Trump on Sunday warned of new and significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing does not withdraw a recent 34 per cent retaliatory tariff hike, threatening to end all ongoing talks with China.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Titan, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and JSW Steel were the biggest laggards.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, Maruti, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Nestle, Bharti Airtel and Adani Ports were the biggest gainers. Tata Consultancy Services emerged as the only laggard.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
In a drastic measure to stem any major disruption to the US economy as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate to almost zero and said it would buy USD700 billion in bonds. The covid-19 pandemic has sickened more than 156,000 people worldwide and left more than 5,800 dead. The death toll in the US stands at 68, while infections neared 3,700.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
During the day, it tanked 634.38 points or 0.78 per cent to 80,050.07. The NSE Nifty declined 137.15 points or 0.56 per cent to 24,198.85. "The near-term market construct has turned weak, with FIIs turning sellers on rallies.
Equity benchmark Sensex on Thursday plunged about 965 points to crash below the 80,000 level due to heavy selling in global equities after the US Federal Reserve signalled fewer rate cuts next year. Besides, deep losses in consumer durables, banking and IT stocks amid foreign fund outflows added to the gloom, analysts said.
However, dollar's rise against other currencies overseas capped the gains
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and Infosys were the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Nestle, Maruti and JSW Steel were among the laggards.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
With an expected earnings growth of 15 per cent, benchmark index Nifty 50 may hit 24,500 level by December 2024 and move further to surpass the level of 26,500 by December 2025, Emkay Investment Managers said on Tuesday. The 50-share Nifty settled at 22,888.15 on Tuesday. In the previous day, it hit a new lifetime peak of 23,110.80.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
'GenAI programmes may not be large in terms of value, but have triggered a lot of new opportunities among clients.'
The US Fed also said that the unemployment rate too would rise to 5.7 per cent.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their buying spree and poured close to Rs 4,800 crore in the Indian equity markets in the first week of January driven by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals. Additionally, they injected Rs 4,000 crore in the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. With expectations of a prolonged decline in US interest rates in 2024, there is an anticipation that FPIs will likely escalate their purchase, particularly in the initial months of the New Year leading up to the general elections, V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Tata Steel, Zomato, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and NTPC were the major laggards. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
To minimise risk, invest in a debt fund whose duration matches your investment timeframe.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
It could be a tough week In the run-up to such an event, the market is always nervous.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and HCL Technologies were the biggest gainers. On the contrary, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, NTPC and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, NTPC, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, State Bank of India, Titan and Tata Steel were the major gainers. Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Bajaj Finance were the major laggards.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
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